Marvel Studios kicks off the summer movie season next weekend with the final chapter of James Gunn’s superhero space saga Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. Early tracking suggests a domestic opening of $130 million, but the sequel could bow anywhere between $120 million and $150 million. And it could all depend on a plumber from Brooklyn.
Official IMAX poster for “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
The original Guardians of the Galaxy scored $94 million in its North American opening weekend in 2014, on its way to a terrific $772.7 million global franchise launch for characters almost nobody had ever heard of before.
The sequel Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 saw a significant jump in opening ticket sales three years later when its freshman domestic weekend drew $146 million. The final worldwide tally was $863.7 million.
Those outcomes made the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise one of the most lucrative for the MCU at the time, with the sixth- and seventh-highest grosses for Marvel from among 15 total film releases by 2017. The two films ranked behind only The Avengers (2012), Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015), Iron Man 3 (2013), Captain America: Civil War (2016), and Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017). The first Guardians movie was actually the fourth-highest Marvel grosser during its release.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 hopes to build upon that increasing franchise success and overall Marvel reputation for ever-higher box office results. But the Covid pandemic era combined with the necessity of re-establishing the post-Avengers: Endgame MCU with a new overarching narrative and lots of new characters has taken a toll.
Of the eight Marvel releases after 2019, only one — Spider-Man: No Way Home — has broken the $1 billion barrier. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness came close with $952 million. That’s a far cry from previous Phase Three results, when the final six films — Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, and Spider-Man: Far From Home — along combined for more than $9 billion and averaged a mindblowing $1.5 billion per film average.
Indeed, even if we exclude the three MCU movies released during the worst days of the Covid pandemic — Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, and Eternals, which all combined for just $1.2 billion in global sales — the rest of the Phase Four and Phase Five slate outside of the Spider-Man franchise (which, as noted above, is the one post-2019 Marvel movie to top $1 billion) has grossed just $3.03 billion across four movies, for an average of about $758 million per film.
Granted, the Covid pandemic almost certainly cost Black Widow a more typical Marvel outcome approaching perhaps $700-800 million, based on the popularity of the character and the star power of lead Scarlett Johansson. Despite day and date release on Disney+ streaming as soon as it hit theaters, Black Widow still managed nearly $380 million gross while other films still couldn’t even break $100 million and many theaters remained shuttered.
Likewise, Shang-Chi took $432 million despite theater closures and Covid spreading, so it probably could’ve easily bested at least $700+ million in more normal times. Eternals, too, could’ve seen a boost of a couple of hundred million dollars toward $600 million territory. And of course, these are conservative estimates, as the data for each film suggests they would probably play even better than my lowball guesses.
The point being, it’s true that Covid hurt these films significantly, and in better times they could’ve and probably would’ve grossed closer to $700+ million box office average, which would be more consistent with the rest of the Phase Four and Phase Five slate. Now let’s just boost the whole lot by rounding up to $800 million average.
Unfortunately, however much better that sounds and admittedly would be relative to the actual outcomes, it’s still significantly lower than the previous MCU highs pre-2020. And even if we add in Spider-Man: No Way Home’s standout $1.9 billion outcome, the average box office result for post-2019 Marvel releases is roughly $880 million, or slightly more than half the average of those six pre-2020 releases when the MCU was at its box office heights.
Maria Bakalova stars in “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
Most recently, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania underperformed significantly, finishing its theatrical run at $474.5 million worldwide, which is lower than either of the first two films in that franchise, which grossed $519 million with 2015’s Ant-Man and then added $622.6 million with 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp.
Quantumania is very good despite the weaker reviews from other outlets and lower audience scores, but there’s simply no denying it’s a troubling moment for Marvel, since other films demonstrate the box office has largely returned to normal for franchises and blockbusters.
Which means Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is now expected to help put the MCU back on solid box office footing. This added pressure isn’t helpful, since the movie is longer than the previous two chapters and also reportedly darker and less humorous, as well as being the end of this iteration of the Guardians themselves. That’s a whole lot of risky elements at a time when Marvel needs sure things.
Sean Gunn and Bradley Cooper star as Rocket Raccoon in “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
More important to this discussion is a crucial observation — the differences in Vol. 3 as compared to the prior two movies is very similar to something I talked about in an article last month when I analyzed why both Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and DC Studio’s own modest superhero franchise sequel Shazam! Fury of the Gods both disappointed at the box office (Fury of the Gods grossed a shockingly low $133 million around the world, despite being a good fun superhero film).
It’s unfair that Gunn’s trilogy capper faces this added burden, but on the other hand as one of the most popular franchises of the MCU it sort of comes with the territory.
I don’t feel the performance of Gunn’s DCEU movie The Suicide Squad is particularly relevant to expectations for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, except that it’s part of the broader narrative surrounding Gunn’s co-CEO role at DC Studios now, and the narrative itself includes a lot of arguing and bad blood and toxicity among fans. Gunn was the target of dishonest attacks by rightwing trolls and literal neo-Nazis online several years ago, when some of his old tweets containing vulgar and offensive jokes from years earlier were resurfaced and used to accuse him of all manner of horrible and false things.
I want to point out Gunn’s controversial tweets were not just random jokes, but rather sarcasm and mockery of certain people, issues, and attitudes in society. So the “statements” attributed to him were obviously not meant to be taken as Gunn’s own remarks and feelings, and anyone aware of the context or of the man himself knows it’s simply a lie to present those things as some sort of revelation about Gunn.
Moreover, Gunn had already directly publicly apologized for his tweets, explained what they really were but that he still recognized it wasn’t his place to make such jokes, and then later publicly apologized and talked about it again. None of the facts matter, however, and he was fired as director of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.
However, Gunn refused to respond publicly with anger or even a strong defense of himself — he could’ve noted the real context of the tweets, pointed out he had already twice addressed them, and that the ongoing controversy around them was specifically started by fascists and bigots who resented Gunn for speaking out against authoritarianism and abusive extremists.
But it was always a bunch of lies, and Gunn bounced right back — he was hired by Warner Bros. to make The Suicide Squad, rehired by Marvel to make Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and became co-CEO of DC Studios with Peter Safran. Now, Gunn is preparing for the Los Angeles premiere of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 tonight, finishing his writing on Superman: Legacy, and gearing up to direct that film for a 2025 release.
Still, some segments of fandom who resent the fact they don’t have the movies they’d prefer to have from DC Studios are daily insulting, bashing, and attacking Gunn with all manner of dishonest and outright toxic ways, including resurfacing the lies and accusations again. Gunn remains above the fray, but it plays out daily on social media and certain fan sites where the army of trolls congregate to spread their false propaganda.
Does any of this matter to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’s box office? Not really, aside from a few fan sites generally aligned with the anti-Gunn forces, which run stories suggesting “controversy” will play a role in suppressing Vol. 3’s gross. The mainstream public probably has no idea any of this has ever even taken place, let alone cares about any of it. What they care about is whether it’s a franchise they like with stars they like in trailers that look good for a movie released at a time when they want to see it.
The lower initial box office tracking for Guardians is because the main marketing hadn’t kicked off yet and the film was still sight-unseen, plus Avatar: The Way of Water and The Super Mario Bros. Movie, as well as all of the buzz and then fizzle around Shazam! Fury of the Gods and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. This week and next, we’ll see a big marketing push for Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 and get a better idea of its trajectory.
I won’t be surprised if it generally stays in the $130 million domestic range, if audiences take a wait-and-see tone after Quantumania, as well as because of Vol. 3’s length reduces how many times it can play per day. And $130 million domestic is still a strong opening that — if foreign markets track at similarly lower numbers relative to previous films’ international box office — suggests an $800+ million finish.
But Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 could also open higher, closer to the $150 million level. The film’s star Chris Pratt is also the lead voice actor in The Super Mario Bros. Movie that looks to top $1 billion this weekend, so Pratt’s star power and the fact he’s been on people’s minds lately due to Mario Bros. could boost Guardians’ opening.
Likewise, with two big family franchises in the marketplace, they can tend to actually help one another if there’s spillover from folks who change their minds at the ticket counter or who can’t get the seats they want for one or the other film. It also tends to boost overall weekend attendance, and May should see a lot more enthusiastic public turnout for movies. And some folks unsatisfied with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will seek out Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 to scratch their itch.
So I don’t think Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has anything to worry about. But I’ll keep monitoring the data and be back next week with another updated look at the numbers and my final box office predictions for James Gunn’s trilogy-ending sequel.
Be sure to check this space again this weekend for my coverage from the Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 premiere tonight in Los Angeles, and my full review tomorrow right here at Forbes.
Stay connected with us on social media platform for instant update click here to join our Twitter, & Facebook
We are now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@TechiUpdate) and stay updated with the latest Technology headlines.
For all the latest Art-Culture News Click Here
