Iowa vs. South Carolina prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament Final Four

Buckle up, because the best college basketball game this weekend is between the No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes and the No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks in the Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four.

The undefeated Gamecocks have rolled to a third straight Final Four under head coach Dawn Staley, and they have arguably the best player in the country and future No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA Draft in Aliyah Boston.

However, they are running into Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes, who have won back-to-back games by double digits, knocking out Hailey Van Lith and Louisville in the Elite Eight behind a 40-point triple-double from Clark.

South Carolina defeated No. 2 Maryland by 11 points in the Elite Eight, and the team is undefeated on the season. In fact, the last time the Gamecocks lost was March 6, 2021.

So, oddsmakers seem pretty confident that Staley’s group will win this game. South Carolina is anywhere from an 11-point to 12-point favorite in this game, despite the star power of Clark waiting on the other side.

South Carolina is -330 to win the National Championship, but can Clark and company pull off an all-time upset?

Here are the latest odds and my best bet for Friday night’s Final Four matchup:

Iowa vs. South Carolina odds, spread and total

Iowa vs. South Carolina prediction and pick

Yes, South Carolina has been dominant all season long, but what if I told you that the Gamecocks are just 1-3 against the spread in this year’s NCAA Tournament?

The Gamecocks have been favored by 14.5 or more points in each of their previous four games, so this is the shortest line they’ll be asked to cover to date.

Still, I think there is value in taking the points with Iowa, who has one of the best offenses in the country. The Hawkeyes lead the country in points per game (87.6) and are seventh in the land in 3-point percentage (37.9).

South Carolina has a stifling defense, led by Boston on the interior, but this is the best team the Gamecocks have faced to date.

Clark, who I believe is the best player in the country, does so much more than score, opening up looks for her teammates by averaging 8.6 assists per game.

Monika Czinano (17.2 points per game) and McKenna Warnock (11.0 points per game) provide Clark with some steady support in the scoring column.

The Hawkeyes have been pretty dominant on their run as a No. 2 seed, and while they may not be able to upset South Carolina, this line is a little disrespectful given how well they’ve played.

I’ll fade Dawn Staley’s group here against the spread, since South Carolina has struggled to cover in this tournament.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.