Kansas State vs. West Virginia prediction and odds for Saturday, March 4 (Sell high on Wildcats)

West Virginia is trending towards an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament, but a win against a potentially top two seed may be enough to lock it into the field.

The Mountaineers face Kansas State in the regular season finale, a rematch from a K-State win in Manhattan, Kansas on New Year’s Eve, 82-76, as one point favorites. However, West Virginia is starting to realize is playing fine ball at the moment, winning two of three with the loss a two point road game to Kansas.

Can West. Va, an analytic darling despite a modest record, propel itself into the dance as a home favorite?

Here are the odds:

Kansas State vs. West Virginia odds, spread and total

Kansas State vs. West Virginia prediction and pick

Kansas State’s defense has been playing at an insanely high level of late, third in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1, but the offense is outside the top 100.

I see some regression coming for the Wildcats on the road, where they check in 350th in their away from home rating per Haslametrics, meaning that the team’s play slips dramatically away from home.

Now they head to Morgantown to face a West Virginia team that can take advantage on the glass and at the free throw line. West Virginia is the best offensive rebounding team in the Big 12 in addition to leading the league in free throw rate. That’s an issue for Kansas State, who is last in defensive rebounding rate and has the third worst free throw allowed rate in the conference.

While Kansas State is on a four game winning streak that includes a home win against Baylor, I see some struggles coming for them on the road. I’ll take the Mountaineers to punch their ticket to the ‘Big Dance’ with a home win and cover.

PICK: West Virginia -3.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.