Lionel Messi’s Move To Inter Miami And MLS Shakes Betting Markets

If you think the saga of Lionel Messi’s impending move to Major League Soccer has been a whirlwind, just imagine being an oddsmaker trying to handicap the impact the greatest player of our generation could have on the mid-tier pro league.

Messi revealed in an interview on Wednesday that he will continue his career in MLS with Inter Miami, who had long been reported as one of the strongest suitors to secure the Argentine legend’s signature. As early as

And while pundits at home and abroad debate what the move will mean for MLS, American soccer and Messi’s own legacy, the watershed news has also caused one of the most severe odds spikes in MLS betting history.

According to SportsBettingDime.com, odds on Miami winning the 2023 MLS Cup averaged +17500 (or 175 to 1) as of Tuesday, meaning a bettor who wagered $100 on the Herons would earn $17,500 in profit if the Herons won the title. By the time play kicked off in the first of two midweek MLS games on Wednesday, you would only get +2600 odds on the same bet — according to an average of five sportsbooks’ prices provided by OddsTrader.com. Some books have even lowered odds below +2000.

In other words, a bettor who acted yesterday could be in line to earn seven times as much as one who acted this evening if Miami become champions. And while we’ve seen other stars — though none as big as the seven-time ballon d’Or winner — make headline grabbing summer moves to the league, it’s hard to imagine a circumstance that could’ve produced a similar drastic shift.

When Gareth Bale joined LAFC last summer, the Black & Gold were already oddsmakers’ MLS Cup favorite. When both Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez signed on to play striker for the LA Galaxy, it was early enough in the season that there wasn’t time for any team’s price — even a struggling one’s — to rise as high as Miami’s after a fourth straight defeat on the weekend.

The closest recent equivalent may be when a 2018 D.C. United squad secured the signature of Wayne Rooney and saw their MLS Cup odds drop from +24340 in June of that year to +9000 shortly after his July arrival (per SportsBettingDime.com). That’s a bit more than a two-and-a-half fold decrease in potential profit for bettors. An even bigger shift came later, as D.C. struggled at first to adjust to life with Rooney, then turned into a steamroller down the stretch of the regular season.

Of course, there’s no guarantee Messi’s arrival will transform Miami from an Eastern Conference cellar dweller into a title contender, especially in what is left of the 2023 season by the time he begins playing. There are countless examples of MLS teams whose big star signings have not brought immediate impact on the field. And there are more holes to fill on Miami’s roster than just at Messi’s No. 10 playmaking role.

But perhaps more than ever, the structure of league play is set up so that it’s a reasonable possibility. With the MLS Cup Playoff field expanded to nine teams in each conference, Miami is currently only six points beneath the playoff line in the East despite their struggles. And the best-of-three series in the first round — with each team hosting at least one game — also helps Miami if they can make it that far. Think of it this way: If you are the higher seed but don’t have Lionel Messi, which would you rather have to do? Beat Messi once at home, or beat Messi 2 out of 3, with one of those games coming on the road?

On the other hand, bettors who acted early on Miami may find themselves tempted to cash out on betting apps that allow the practice. Personally, I have a ticket on Miami to win MLS Cup at +6500 odds, purchased in mid-April. On Wednesday, I could have cashed it out for about a %150 return. Bettors who had higher odds on Miami could be offered several times that.