Next Weather: What to expect on July 4th weekend

By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Executive Weather Producer 

BOSTON – With the big holiday weekend fast approaching, what’s more important than the weather forecast?  Nothing can foul up the best laid plans like an ol’ fashion wet and dreary, summer weekend in New England.

2021 was the poster child for just that.

Memorial Weekend 2021: 4 straight days of rain and cold, more than 3″ of water fell in Boston.  The high temperature on Memorial Day was 62 degrees, 9 below average.

July 4th Weekend 2021: 4 straight days of rain (July 1-4) totaling nearly 5″ of water in Boston, the high temperature on July 4 was 68, 13 degrees below average.

What a difference a year can make!  After a pretty stellar Memorial Day weekend a few weeks ago (minus some rain on Saturday), things are also looking promising for MOST of the upcoming holiday weekend.  As usual, we cannot give the “all clear” sign for the entire stretch.  Let’s dig in.

FRIDAY:

Quick summary…In a word…HOT.  Friday will be the hottest day of the weekend, a real scorchah…great day to spend at the beach.

Rain chances…0% no rain expected in New England

Temperatures…Highs in the mid to upper 90s!  Hottest in the Merrimack Valley, coolest along the South Coast 70s/80s.  Boston’s record high for the day is 98 set back in 1963, not likely but also not impossible.

Wind…southwest 10-20mph (bit gusty)

At the beach…High tide 1:57 p.m., much cooler at South Coast/South Shore beaches (due to SW wind) than northern beaches. 

Plenty of sunshine…overall rating (1-10): 8

SATURDAY:

Quick summary…Unsettled.  A front comes through to break the heat bringing a solid threat of showers and thunderstorms.  Right now, it appears the risk is slightly higher south of Boston and in the afternoon, but that may change in the coming days.

Rain chances…60%, the highest of any day this weekend.  I would say south of Boston the chances are even higher, about 80%.

Temperatures…Highs in the mid-80s, although quite variable depending on the amount of cloud cover and rain in any given location.  It will be VERY humid with dewpoints approaching 70.

Wind…west-southwest 5-15mph

At the beach…High tide 2:36pm, probably the worst beach day of the weekend given the severe threat and some cloud cover.  Overall rating (1-10): 4

SUNDAY: 

Quick summary…Looks like a beauty!  The only potential fly in the ointment would be if the cold front gets held up along the South Coast…if that were the case, some clouds or showers could linger south of Boston early on.  At this point it appears as though our entire area should clear out nicely, get nearly full sun along with much drier air

Rain chances…10% just holding onto a slight chance along the South Coast early on

Temperatures…Highs in the upper 80s inland, a chance we could hit the low 90s in some areas.  There will likely be sea breezes developing in the afternoon at the beaches, cooling them into the 70s.

Wind…west-northwest 4-8mph, light/onshore at the Coast in the afternoon

At the beach…High tide 3:15pm, tons of sun, light wind, just a tad cool with a developing sea breeze…overall rating (1-10): 8

MONDAY:

Quick summary…Looks like another terrific summer day in New England!   Could be some increasing high clouds late in the day in advance of the next system (Tuesday)

Rain chances…10% just a slight risk late in the day or at night to the west

Temperatures…Highs could hit 90 well inland. 70s/80s likely the closer you get to the Coastline

Wind…the toughest call right now on Monday…how far inland do onshore winds penetrate?  Is it just the beaches that are cooler or do we get cooling onshore winds well inland…TBD

At the beach…High tide 3:55pm, should be lots of sun, but onshore winds will keep the beaches cooler… overall rating (1-10): 8