The Oscars are fast approaching, and, as is typical, all eyes are on Best Picture and the major acting categories.
Ahead of the 95th Academy Awards set to air a little earlier this year, on Sunday, March 12, CityNews film buffs Lucas Casaletto and James Mackin share their predictions concentrating on the nominees for Best Picture.
Lucas: Here we are again, James. It’s difficult not to be excited about the Academy Awards. I know you feel the same way — especially after such a fascinating year in filmmaking.
James: That’s right, Lucas, we’ve seen gigantic successes at the box office and some exciting arthouse films. 2022 has been a truly dynamic year for cinema, the first since the pandemic that’s really felt like we’ve had a large variety of options at the theatre.
Lucas: As is customary, James and I have watched the 10 Best Picture nominees and will share our thoughts on each film below. Like last year’s edition, we’ll go through every nominee and predict which film we think will win Best Picture and which of the year’s best should ultimately prevail.
Let’s get right into it.
Avatar: The Way of Water
Four Oscar nominations, including Best Sound, Visual Effects and Production Design
Lucas: We begin with Canadian director James Cameron’s latest, the highly anticipated sequel to Avatar (2009). Putting it frankly, I was surprised to see Avatar: The Way of Water nominated. Visually, it dazzles, as it should, with a film budget in the $400 million range. Narratively it lacks, and a long run time makes it a challenging watch regardless of special effects.
Why it will win BP: There is next to no chance it will receive the award.
Awards it could win: I do have it winning in the visual effects category, and it could also surprise and win Best Sound.
James: This is the most unlikely win for Best Picture, but it’s certainly not a bad film. Advancing motion capture technology by successfully shooting footage underwater, this film will be studied more for its technical mastery than its story. But it is an entertaining blockbuster, as its incredibly successful run at the box office shows.
Why it will win BP: The visuals, the visuals, the visuals. That’s the best chance for securing any wins, and that would be one hell of an upset if it took Best Picture.
Awards it could win: It does feel like a lock for Best Visual Effects. To be fair, it doesn’t need to win any awards as it’s already won the box office, and Payakan has already won our hearts.
All Quiet on the Western Front
Nine Oscar nominations, including Best International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Best Sound, Visual Effects, Best Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Production Design
Lucas: OK, it’s about to get interesting. Similar to Avatar: The Way of Water, it shines as a visual treat with director Edward Berger in total control of his craft, leading to a solid if unspectacular remake of the 1930 film and adaption of the original 1929 novel — a novel I have not myself read, though I have seen the 1930 version, which I preferred.
What this movie has going for it is momentum. It performed quite well at the 76th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs), which is often though not always, predictive of how the Oscars will play out. It won seven BAFTAs, including Best Film, Original Score and Best Sound, among others.
Why it will win BP: I can’t see it winning Best Picture, though it is a film Academy voters tend to love (see 1917 and Dunkirk). It certainly has a chance, if however small. It wouldn’t be the popular choice, though.
Awards it could win: It won’t go home empty-handed regardless of if it falls short of Best Picture, as it should easily win Best International Feature Film. I also have it winning Original Score and Cinematography.
James: I have read the novel this was based on, but I haven’t seen the 1930 film. What we have here is a rather depressing yet illuminating showcase of the horrors of war. The film doesn’t just focus on that, as it also portrays the existentialist banality of a soldier’s life outside of combat. It’s a film that many who see it will be affected by, which is why it certainly had an impression at the BAFTAs. A Best International Feature Film win makes sense here, although Best Picture seems slightly out of reach.
Why it will win BP: It won huge at the BAFTAs, and this does feel like a traditional choice to win Best Picture in terms of its subject. But with only one film not in the English language ever winning this award before, it seems like too high of a milestone for this film to win. It could certainly change the game for Netflix if it did, though.
Awards it could win: Best International Feature Film feels like an easy lock, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar heading back to Germany.
Elvis
Eight Oscar nominations, including Best Actor (Austin Butler), Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Sound, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, Film Editing
James: Most biopics pail in comparison to the figure they’re portraying, especially music biopics. This film, however, does a surprisingly well job of matching the intensity of Elvis’ success, helped along by two bigger-than-life performances (Austin Butler’s Oscar-nominated role and Tom Hanks’ Razzie-nominated role). Of all the films nominated for Best Picture this year, I think this one will see a large fanbase grow in the years to come, regardless of what awards it takes home.
Why it will win BP: This is Elvis we’re talking about. The film also has a strong chance of winning Best Film Editing, which usually foreshadows the big winner of the night.
Awards it could win: While not my personal choice for Best Actor, Butler’s turn in the blue suede shoes is a strong choice to win. I see this film taking home Best Film Editing and Best Costume Design as well.
Lucas: An interesting and perhaps uninspiring Best Picture nominee. It’s polarized critics and audiences, with many praising Butler’s performance as Elvis Presley and Baz Luhrmann’s direction, though Tom Hanks’ portrayal of Colonel Tom Parker has garnered a widespread negative reaction.
It could follow what Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) accomplished at the Oscars that year, with Rami Malek winning Best Actor but falling short of Best Picture, as Butler is widely regarded as having a great chance at securing the lead acting nomination.
Why it will win BP: Butler’s performance stands out, but I have a hard time envisioning a music biopic winning the award.
Awards it could win: Butler winning Best Actor is a strong potential outcome. It’s also a favourite to win Makeup and Hairstyling, and Costume Design, two awards it received at the BAFTAs.
Women Talking
Two Oscar nominations, including Best Adapted Screenplay
Lucas: A film that deserved a lot more love but struggled to stand out, largely due to a limited theatrical release that didn’t expand until late January.
The cast is stacked with impressive performances across the board and is largely carried by Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley and Ben Whishaw. A challenging yet rewarding watch, Canadian director Sarah Polley executes this well-made and timely film with a sound message, and though it gravitates toward being too theatrical, one cannot emphasize how influential this film is for the general population to observe.
Why it will win BP: Though a fantastic film, it’s hard to see how it will beat out the others nominated in this category.
Awards it could win: It has one more nomination, and it’s my pick to win Best Adapted Screenplay due to Polley’s superb script.
James: Hands down, the best script of the year. This film is easily a lock for Best Adapted Screenplay, although a Best Picture win seems just out of reach. Personally, I’d hoped that some of the performances would receive attention at the Oscars as well (especially Foy and Buckley), but not all amazing performances can fit into those 20 coveted spots.
Why it will win BP: Women Talking is a film that’s interested in having a difficult conversation. This film does resonate with many voters, and it should be more widely seen.
Awards it could win: I feel incredibly confident in saying Sarah Polley will win Best Adapted Screenplay for this.
Triangle of Sadness
Three Oscar nominations, including Best Original Screenplay and Best Director
James: Arguably the funniest of the Best Picture nominees, Triangle of Sadness is simultaneously a satire skewering the ultra-wealthy and those who work for them as well as a well-written survival tale. One of Östlund’s strongest films and his second Palme d’Or win (a rare feat for filmmakers). I don’t see this film taking much Oscar gold, but the cast and crew shouldn’t worry about that, as the film already won the cinematic world’s most prestigious award. Special attention should be given to the performance of Charlbi Dean, who unfortunately passed away in 2022. She had a star-making performance, but we’ll never get the chance to see what she could’ve done.
Why it will win BP: Everyone loves a good vomit scene, and this film has a great vomit scene.
Awards it could win: Östlund will likely take the award for Best Original Screenplay, although I do think Best Director is a stretch.
Lucas: I should preface this by saying I love director Ruben Östlund, and I strongly encourage any movie lover to check out his previous work.
Triangle of Sadness was one of my favourite movies of the year — a fascinating and well-executed glimpse at the economic systems of modern society. It won the Palme d’Or at the 2022 Cannes Film Festival after receiving an eight-minute standing ovation, though it has failed to generate much momentum during awards season.
Why it will win BP: Stranger things have happened. Parasite (2019) is the last Palme d’Or-winning film to take home Best Picture.
Awards it could win: It has a much better chance of winning Best Original Screenplay than Best Director, but I expect Triangle of Sadness to go home empty-handed on Sunday.
TÁR
Six Oscar nominations, including Best Actress (Cate Blanchett), Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Film Editing
Lucas: Similar to Women Talking, Tár is a borderline masterpiece that didn’t get a lot of early attention due to a limited theatrical release. That hasn’t deterred movie critics, with many naming it as the best film of 2022. One reason behind the acclaim is the execution of Blanchett, who gives a colossal tour-de-force performance that may be the finest of her career as she portrays a fictional Lydia Tár — the first female chief conductor of the renowned Berlin Philharmonic.
Director Todd Field delivers a steady, brilliant approach to filmmaking here, receiving a well-deserved Best Director nom. It’s Blanchett that enters Oscar night as the slight favourite to win Best Actress after winning the BAFTA award.
Why it will win BP: It’s not considered the betting favourite, and while it would be an upset should it ultimately win, I don’t think anyone that’s seen Tár would be overly surprised. It’s very good.
Awards it could win: Blanchett was my early pick for Best Actress. Field is in tough for Best Director but is deserving. It has a shot in every category.
James: A recurring theme with the Oscars is the biggest awards going to films usually forgotten by the moviegoing public in the years to come. How many remember the King’s Speech over the Social Network? How many prefer Crash to Brokeback Mountain? I believe we’ll have a similar situation here, with the Academy ignoring the big win for 2022’s best film and giving it to something that isn’t Tár. While Michelle Yeoh does feel like a lock for Best Actress, Blanchett arguably delivered the stronger and more complicated performance. If Yeoh were to win, it’d be well deserved. And even though Blanchett has already won multiple Oscars, she certainly deserves another one here.
Why it will win BP: Tár is the best film of 2022 and the film that will hold up the most in the years to come. People may remember Avatar or Val Kilmer’s heart-wrenching return to acting, but Tár is the film that won’t be forgotten.
Awards it could win: I figure the film’s best chance for Oscar gold is for its cinematography by Florian Hoffmeister, although Blanchett does seem like a very likely win for Best Actress. Excluding Triangle of Sadness, I do think this is the best possible choice for Best Original Screenplay as well.
Top Gun: Maverick
Six Oscar nominations, including Film Editing, Best Original Song, Best Sound, Visual Effects and Best Adapted Screenplay
James: Top Gun: Maverick is simultaneously propaganda for the American military and a tax write-off for Tom Cruise to try out his interest in flying jets. All that said, it’s the year’s most entertaining film and the film that brought moviegoing audiences back to the cinema in droves. Many people online complain about the lack of blockbuster representation at the Academy, and this film’s inclusion shuts them all down. Blockbusters don’t deserve to be considered among the year’s best films unless they really are one of the year’s best films. After this film, we’ve all got the need for speed.
Why it will win BP: How many times have we all seen this by now? The western world can’t get enough of Top Gun: Maverick, and I think that might just be enough to give it the Best Picture statue.
Awards it could win: Excluding Best Picture, I figure this has the best chance of winning Best Sound.
Lucas: There are sequels, and then there are SEQUELS. Top Gun: Maverick was the most fun I have had watching a film in a long time. Released 26 years after the original Top Gun, a lot has changed since then, but what hasn’t is Tom Cruise’s ability to carry an action movie starring as the titular character, Maverick.
It’s since earned over $1.4 billion at the global box office, and honestly, it deserves every penny. The sights and sounds are outstanding, the action sequences dazzle, and the storyline is intriguing and interesting all at once. Miles Teller proved to be a fine choice as Bradley “Rooster” Bradshaw.
Why it will win BP: It would be one hell of a plot twist should it win Best Picture. Do I think it will ultimately take home the prize? No, but I wouldn’t be mad if it did.
Awards it could win: I don’t think it has a shot to win Visual Effects or Best Adapted Screenplay, but I could see it winning Best Sound and Best Original Song (Lady Gaga’s Hold my Hand).
The Fabelmans
Seven Oscar nominations, including Best Actress (Michelle Williams), Best Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch), Best Director, Original Score, Original Screenplay and Production Design
Lucas: If you would have asked me a few months ago which film I expected to leave the Oscars with several awards, I would have said The Fabelmans. Fast forward to now, and I am not so sure. Director Steven Spielberg’s most personal film to date ushers the audience into his childhood and how he would go on to become one of the greatest filmmakers of all time. It has all of the qualities of a true Oscar movie, with a Best Actress nomination (Williams is fantastic) and could have gotten another one in Paul Dano. Hirsch appears in the film for less than 30 minutes, so a nomination feels strange, but his part is terrific.
The Fabelmans won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF), which has foreshadowed Best Picture wins for several recent films, including Nomadland (2020), Green Book (2018) and The King’s Speech (2010).
Why it will win BP: Winning the People’s Choice Award at TIFF signals that it has a real shot at Best Picture. The issue is that it hasn’t collected much hardware this awards season (one BAFTA award nomination), so it’s not my pick.
Awards it could win: I worry that it might strike out in every category. It likely won’t win any acting awards. Spielberg has a real shot at Best Director and Original Screenplay, but others are favoured. The score was great, so maybe? It’s a tricky one.
James: My biggest issue with the Academy’s nominations for this film is the fact that Judd Hirsch was nominated for essentially 15 minutes of screen time when Paul Dano’s intensely subtle performance is right there. But otherwise, The Fabelmans really is one of the most unique films of Spielberg’s oeuvre. More than a look back at his life or a film about the magic of movies, this is a film about the curse of artists. A true artist is someone who pursues art above all else, sacrificing personal relationships and other interests in service of something greater. The scene where the young Spielberg imagines himself filming his family’s divorce is one of the most powerful scenes Spielberg has ever created.
Why it will win BP: It won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, and it’s a film about the power of cinema. But this isn’t just any film about the power of cinema, it’s a film about the wondrous addiction to cinema.
Awards it could win: I think the best chance it has is for Best Director and for Best Original Score. I don’t see it winning anything else.
Everything Everywhere All At Once
11 Oscar nominations, including Best Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Best Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu), Best Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Costume Design and Film Editing
James: Lucas, this is the one. The multiversal masterpiece, the career high for Michelle Yeoh, the return of Ke Huy Quan, the strangest film to capture the hearts of millions. The most nominated film and the one that will likely win almost every award it’s nominated for. Everything Everywhere All At Once is one of those films that can’t be forgotten because it’s burned itself into our collective consciousness. Not to mention, there’s a cute raccoon.
Why it will win BP: The film came out in March and has consistently remained a gigantic part of pop culture since then. It’s a film that celebrates the legacy of one of the world’s best actors, it’s a comeback story like no other for a beloved child star of the 80s, and it genuinely has something for everybody.
Awards it could win: Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor feel like a lock. I have a feeling Hsu could take Best Supporting Actress, and the film could grab Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing as well.
Lucas: James, now we’re talking. I know you loved this film as much as I did. I am confident in saying that this is the most unique and touching movie I have ever seen. It’s incredible, from top to bottom, and I safely label this film as a masterpiece that, as you alluded to, will be remembered for the rest of time.
Willfully ambitious, it covers several philosophical concepts, most notably Asian-American identity and family dynamics. The entire cast shines through, with several memorable parts. Yes, it’s weird, but if you dig deep enough, you’ll understand what directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert want to tell you. It enters Sunday with a chance to dominate the Oscars. It only won one BAFTA award (Film Editing) despite numerous nominations but won four Screen Actor Guild Awards (SAG) and two Golden Globes.
Why it will win BP: It’s my pick to win, and it appears to be the favourite ahead of Sunday. It just feels like the right choice and is more than deserving.
Awards it could win: Yeoh is neck and neck with Blanchett (Tár) for Best Actress. Quan is the strong favourite for Best Supporting Actor, while Curtis is starting to gain steam as a popular Best Supporting Actress pick. The Daniels are frontrunners for Best Director, and the film has a leg up in Original Screenplay and Film Editing, too.
The Banshees of Inisherin
Nine Oscar nominations, including Best Actor (Colin Farrell), Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan), Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon), Best Director, Original Screenplay, Original Score and Film Editing
Lucas: James, let me begin my final bit by thanking you for your insight and participation. It’s always a blast, and I look forward to witnessing how are predictions look after the awards show. As for The Banshees of Inisherin, what a film. In terms of execution, it’s right up there with some of the best movies of the last few years, and in my opinion, is director Martin McDonagh’s best to date.
What if, one day, your best friend decided that they didn’t want to be friends anymore? Not because of something that happened, like a fight. You didn’t say something stupid while drunk. It’s not anything that can be apologized for or mended. It’s much worse than that. It’s just you. That’s what this film elaborates on, and it’s marvellously funny and heartbreaking all at once.
It enters Sunday with great momentum, having won four BAFTA awards, including Best Supporting Actress and Actor wins for Condon and Keoghan.
Why it will win BP: A part of me thinks that it will! It’s a tremendous film, and even with Everything Everywhere All At Once as my personal pick, it’s just as deserving. If EEAAO is the favourite, Banshees is right behind.
Awards it could win: It’s one of these Academy-nominated movies that could either light it up on Oscar night or fall flat. Farrell, Gleeson, Keoghan and Condon could all win in their respective categories, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising. McDonagh for Best Director? Few would complain. Farrell is right there with Butler and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) as a strong Best Actor contender, and while Gleeson and Keoghan aren’t likely to win, Condon is my pick for Best Supporting Actress. It has a great chance for Original Screenplay, too.
James: Lucas, as always, it’s been a genuine pleasure. And hopefully, our friendship won’t turn out like this film. Both Farrell and Gleeson well deserve their awards, thanks in part to a fantastic script by Martin McDonagh. While I’m not 100 per cent confident either of them will win their awards, Condon certainly feels like a lock for Best Supporting Actress. She plays a character stuck in the middle of the two leads, both physically and philosophically. Her performance, much like Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once and Blanchett in Tár, will be fondly remembered as one of the best of this decade.
Why it will win BP: We’ve all gone through a friendship breakup of some sort, so we all have something to identify with here. It’s not the most likely choice, but this is a very affecting film.
Awards it could win: Best Actor for Farrell feels like a strong pick, as does Best Supporting Actress for Kerry Condon. McDonagh’s greatest strength is with his word, so Best Original Screenplay feels like a strong choice here as well.
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