Paolo Banchero emerges late as betting favorite for No. 1 pick

The Rockets have seemingly been slotted to draft Duke’s Paolo Banchero for over a month now. The consensus opinion has revolved around Orlando picking Jabari Smith at No. 1 overall and Chet Holmgren going No. 2, with Houston left to pick Banchero after the top two.

Suddenly, it appears that may have all changed.

Despite being a distant favorite to go for the entire process, Banchero has suddenly emerged as the favorite to go first overall during tonight’s NBA draft with his odds shifting to -200. As of early Thursday morning at Tipico Sportsbook, the odds for the No. 1 selection were Banchero at -200, Smith at +115, and Holmgren at +700.

For perspective, a -200 gambling line means an implied probability of approximately 66.7% for that particular event.

What could this possibly mean?

Paolo Banchero is currently -200 at most books to go No.1. 66.7% implied odds.

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) June 23, 2022

The easiest interpretation is that the Orlando may be set to take Banchero for themselves. He has length that the front office there often covets, and his size and scoring combination makes him a potential star.

This could also signal the less obvious: A sign that Rockets general manager Rafael Stone is preparing to trade for the selection.

Houston has been reportedly enamored with Banchero throughout the entire process, and they might be seeking to secure their top prospect on the day of the draft. They have the No. 17 selection in the first round, the No. 26 pick, players like KJ Martin and Eric Gordon, and future selections to dangle at the Magic to see if a trade can be accomplished.

When Philadelphia traded with Boston to move from No. 3 to No. 1 in 2017, the Sixers traded a future first rounder in either 2018 or 2019 that was dependent on protections. In a draft with equally ambiguous evaluations around the top three, could Houston find something similiar?

Or, would the Rockets be content to stay pat and potentially have either Smith or Holmgren fall to them at three?

Finally, it’s also possible that the reaction is simply based on faulty intel, and the lines moved as other bettors chased the trend. To this point, as of early Thursday, no major NBA newsbreaker (i.e. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, The Athletic’s Shams Charania, etc.) has identified Banchero as the likely selection for the Magic, or even a high possibility.

Fans will have to parse through the noise and wait to see what happens on draft night, which can be found on ESPN or ABC at 7 p.m. CDT.

Gotta be clear, I don’t know what prompted the move.

My assumption is that a sharp group either received intel and bet it, or bet it with the intention of buyin back tomorrow on Jabari, it got out, and steamrolled.

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) June 23, 2022