Sunak tries to rally weary Tories ahead of by-elections

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Rishi Sunak is braced for crushing parliamentary by-election defeats this week, but he used an end-of-term speech to rally Tory MPs to unite behind him for an autumn fightback.

The prime minister addressed the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers on Wednesday evening, ahead of weary MPs departing Westminster for their six-week summer recess.

His appearance also came on the eve of voters heading to polling stations on Thursday in three constituencies: Uxbridge and South Ruislip in Greater London, Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, and Somerton and Frome in Somerset.

Tory MP Jonathan Gullis told reporters waiting outside the 1922 meeting: “Rishi said what we already know — it’s going to be a tough battle. No one likes a by-election. The circumstances of these by-elections aren’t necessarily ideal.”

However, Gullis added that Sunak had attempted to raise morale with a call to the party to regroup in September: “He was asking all of us to unite behind him when we come back in the autumn. We need to be one team. A united party wins, a divided party loses.”

Most Conservative MPs and bookmakers are convinced the party will suffer defeat in the by-elections in all three seats, which have been vacated by Tories.

Boris Johnson sensationally quit in Uxbridge last month after learning that the privileges committee had concluded he lied to MPs about the so-called partygate scandal, while his ally Nigel Adams resigned as MP for Selby after he did not receive a peerage in Johnson’s final resignation list.

Meanwhile, suspended Tory MP David Warburton stepped down in Somerton following an allegation of cocaine use, which he accepted, and claims of sexual misconduct, which he denied. Warburton said he was resigning because he believed he was denied a fair hearing by the parliamentary watchdog.

The Liberal Democrats are expected to overturn the Tories’ 19,210 majority in Somerton, while Labour are poised to sweep Selby, where the Conservatives had a 20,135 majority.

Uxbridge, where the Tories had a 7,210 majority at the last election, is also expected to fall to Labour, although widespread anger about the Labour mayor of London’s expansion of a low-emission zone into the constituency from next month is considered a wild card factor.

Rumours of a looming reshuffle reached fever pitch in Westminster this week, as Tory MPs speculated Sunak may want to reset his administration sooner than the autumn if he suffers disastrous results in the by-elections.

The prime minister is certain to appoint a new defence secretary, after incumbent Ben Wallace announced his intention to step down from the cabinet last weekend.

Foreign secretary James Cleverly issued a veiled warning to Sunak not to demote him from his so-called great office of state to the ministry of defence, telling the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday: “I very much want to stay put.”

He joked that “you’ll see the nail marks down the parquet flooring in my office if anyone tries to drag me out”.

Downing Street has sought to dampen speculation about an imminent reshuffle, with No 10 sources insisting there are “no plans” for a cabinet shake-up on Friday following the by-election results.

As the parliamentary term ends, Sunak’s net favourability has sunk to -40, his lowest rating since becoming prime minister last October, according to a tracker by the pollster YouGov. The Conservatives lag Labour by an average of 20 points.

However, glimmers of hope for his administration have emerged this week. Official statistics showed the headline rate of inflation fell more than expected last month, reaching a 15-month low of 7.9 per cent.

In addition, Tata Group announced plans to build a £4bn flagship battery factory in the UK to supply Jaguar Land Rover, in a big boost to the domestic car industry.