SuperCoach NBL: How to get out of cheapie disaster

These are the players you should consider buying, holding and selling in your SuperCoach NBL side for round 8.

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SELL

Sell of the week:Lachlan Olbrich (ILL) $96,100

To start the season, we were faced with the question, do we get Olbrich quick? Or at least very soon? Shortly after, over 30 per cent of the competition locked Olbrich into their SuperCoach sides.

But unfortunately, this is not going to be the get rich quick scheme we had hoped for.

The return of Mason Peatling saw Lachie’s minutes fall like a stone. Having scored one SuperCoach point in his last two outings, it is officially time for Olbrich to be considered one and done. There are some good value options discussed in the remainder of the article that you should lock in on for Olbrich.

Others to consider selling

Players with poor schedules

Melbourne United, South East Melbourne and the Illawarra Hawks all have at least 3 single game rounds in a row. There are likely better options for you that play more games during that period and should result in more SuperCoach points.

Ben Henshall (PER) $71,000 GRD

Still 18.5 per cent owned. If you can use your dual-position trading to get Taran Armstrong, we recommend you do so this week.

Ariel Hukporti (MEL) $215,000 CTR

Still 20 per cent owned, Hukporti has been listed in our selling section for the last couple of rounds and has lost nearly all of his early season price gains. This is JLA’s team. Trade Hukporti as a priority.

BENNY’S BREAK EVENS

Each week Benny will list some of the notable Break Evens for the week ahead – players with low Break Evens are set to rise in price while high Break Evens indicate a looming price drop. Sign up to SuperCoach Plus for the full list of Break Evens plus more stats and tools to help your team.

• Josh Bannan (-8, 1 game)

• Mitch Norton (3, 1 game)

• Taran Armstrong (3, 2 games)

• Jo Lual-Acuil (4, 1 game)

• Bryce Cotton (60, 2 games)

• Tahjere McCall (61, 2 games)

HOLD

Hold of the Week:Sam Waardenburg (CRN) $256,400 FWD/CTR

When it comes to the NBL SuperCoach menu, Waardenburg has the lot. Handy dual positioning, the perfect schedule for the next six weeks, a role that should see him play 30 mins per game and a proven record of having 30+ SuperCoach point games.

However, owners will be grimacing at the sight of Waardenburg’s last few SuperCoach outings. The Taipans as a whole are scoring the fewest SuperCoach points per game, which comes as a big surprise for us. Coach Forde wanted them to play fast paced basketball but so far this not been the case. They have the worst turnover percentage in the league and are 2nd worst to only the Hawks in overall offensive efficiency. We expect that as players come back and build their chemistry, the whole group will benefit. Hold onto Waardenburg with both hands.

Other players to consider holding:

Alex Sarr (PER) $185,500 FWD/CTR

Sarr is far and away the most owned player in the competition. We think he can stay that way for one more week. By all means, if you have a luxury trade available, Sarr can go. However, we think that if you have other priorities elsewhere, Sarr is not yet a must sell. Like his role for the Wildcats, Sarr should be on your bench. Perth has a double game round this week meaning you can hope for one more great week from Alex.

Sydney Kings Players

The Kings short term schedule looks poor with consecutive single game rounds in rounds 8 and 9. What I intend to draw your attention to is what happens to the King’s schedule in the period thereafter. In round 10, only the Kings and Taipans have a double game round. Including round 10, the King’s have a league best 5 double game rounds between round 10 and 17 inclusive. Importantly, this also includes round 14 where only Sydney and Melbourne United have double game rounds. All of the above make for compelling reasons to keep your Kings.

BANKSY’S BARGAINS

Each week Banksy will rank his favourite bargain players regardless of schedule. Josh Bannan and Kristian Doolittle would still feature highly here, but as they are now over $200,000, we instead discuss them in the buys of the week.

1. Taran Armstrong (CRN) $90,500 GRD

After 19 and 16 minute games last week, Taran was handed another start and played just shy of 30 minutes in Round 7. The result was 20 SuperCoach points, with an encouraging spread across the box score accruing six points, seven rebounds and four assists. Patrick Miller sat out yet again, and could make his return in Round 8, which will likely hinder Armstrong’s minutes somewhat. Regardless, with a breakeven of 3 and 6 straight double rounds starting the week, Taran is priced at less than eight SuperCoach points and makes for the perfect candidate on our guard bench.

2. Mangok Mathiang (NZ) $185,700 FWD/CTR

We appreciate when a player enters the bargains list for the week, only to then come out and produce their best game for the season. That’s exactly what Mango did this week producing 28 SuperCoach points thanks to an 11 point, 14 rebound double-double against Perth. He also played a season high 28 minutes and the Breakers are going to need more of the same looking at the front court of some of the Breakers upcoming opponents. Now priced at 16 SuperCoach points, Mango has outscored his price in all of his past four games and heads into Round 8 with a breakeven of 20 across his two games. Mathiang’s increase in production has partly been influenced by the injury to Zylan Cheatham. He averaged three rebounds per game in the four games they played together, but has averaged 10 rebounds per game since.

3. Aron Baynes (BRI) $194,100 CTR

We are flagging this one early as there is a chance that Aron is cheaper again next week, but given there are reports that Tyrell Harrison injured his calf in the last game, Baynes could increase his minutes in coming weeks. Foul behaviour and fouls in general have contributed to Baynes ‘cash foul’ status. However, given he averages over 1 SuperCoach point per minute, the Harrison calf injury could once again see Baynes grow into a cash cow.

4. Mitch McCarron (ADL) $171,400 GRD

We discussed McCarron as a cash foul option on the podcast last round having now lost $90.6k off his starting value. With Trey Kell out of the last game, Mitch played twice as many minutes than he did in the contest prior. This opportunity resulted in 27 SuperCoach points against the tough JackJumpers squad. Once known as ‘Money Making Mitch’, will this game spark a mid-season resurgence? He is now on the watchlist as a potential bargain.

5. Flynn Cameron (MEL) $117,000 GRD

This one is the result of opportunity created through injury. Flynn’s minutes have been on the increase over the last couple of games, but due to Travers (concussion), Clark (hamstring) and Dellavedova (calf) all missing the throwdown clash with the SEM Phoenix, Cameron was required to play a season high 26 minutes. This naturally resulted in a NBL career high 14 points and 8 rebounds which converted to an impressive 26 SuperCoach points. He scored 22 a couple of games back and was certainly a contributing factor in United snatching the upset win. Keep an eye on the health of Melbourne’s squad, but if they head into Round 8 undermanned again, Flynn becomes one of the limited bargain priced players producing well above their price.

BUY

Buy of the Week: Taran Armstrong (CRN) $90,500 GRD

Number 1 in Banksy’s Bargains and also your buy of the week. While Patrick Miller might be back from injury, we expect Armstrong to have a solid role of around 15-20 minutes per game regardless. Armstrong has improved with each outing and should regularly score you 15-20 points per game on your SuperCoach bench. This type of output would be effectively double the expected output at what he is priced at. We also see the potential for ceiling games for Taran if the Taipans can improve their offensive efficiency. His passing ability would be greatly suited to a run and gun style that we are used to from Cairns, but are yet to see to date in NBL24. Most importantly, he is the last significant cash cow target that we see getting real opportunity at near basement price. From here on out, we think the best way for us to make money will be through playing the fluctuations in Break Evens week to week.

BOYDIE’S BEST BUYS

Each week Boydie will rank the other best buys for the week ahead.

1. Bryce Cotton (PER) $399,600 GRD

Is this the return of premium NBL SuperCoach Cotton for the rest of the season? Cotton has scores of 39, 34 and 43 over his last 3 games and heads into a double round this round with only 3 other teams on the double. This makes Bryce an absolute buy if you can afford his now hefty price (We did warn you that Cotton’s price may have bottomed out over the last couple weeks). Bryce is definitely a captaincy option for double rounds going forward if he can keep this form up.

2. Anthony Lamb (NZ) $314,000 FWD

After a bit of a slow start, Lamb’s fleece has certainly grown over the last couple of rounds with Zylan Cheatham out injured. Scores of 24, 48 and 37 over his last 3 games and a low Break Even of 44 for NZ’s double game round coming has spring lamb on the shopping list for sure.

3. Keanu Pinder (PER) $353,200 FWD/CTR

We have talked about Pinder’s foul trouble leading to lower minutes and lower SuperCoach production on our podcast over the last couple weeks. However, in Perth’s Round 7 game v NZ Pinder had 0 fouls which meant his minutes ticked up to 27. That led to a 31 point SuperCoach game and I am backing in Keanu to get the job done this round. He is a good option for teams out there looking for an option to trade out Alan “Big Sauce” Williams for.

4. Josh Bannan (BRI) $226,500 FWD

He may appear here for the third week straight, but he again has the lowest breakeven (-8) in the competition, has the largest predicted price increase ($32k) again this week – yet is still only owned by 23% of the competition. He got the start again; he played 29 minutes and he scored another 23 SuperCoach points this week. That’s now scores of 28, 30, 37, 25, 23 and 26 over his last 6 games. There’s nothing more to be said – Get him in!

5. Kristian Doolittle (PER) $239,700 FWD

We called this a couple of weeks ago, but Doolittle is going from strength to strength and playing his role for the Wildcats to perfection. He is being provided Cotton-like minutes, having played 35, 39 and 38 minutes in his last 3 games due to his ability to stretch the floor for the Wildcats playing at both the 3 and the 4. He is priced at around 20 SuperCoach points, but has scored 38 and 31 in his past two games – outscoring the likes of teammate Keanu Pinder for a shade of the price. His minutes are safe, his past two games have been his best games offensively and he heads into Round 8 with a breakeven of 31 between his two games in Round 8.

6. Parker Jackson-Cartwright (NZ) $358,200 GRD

7. Jordan Crawford (TAS) $340,900 GRD / Milton Doyle (TAS) $314,300 GRD

8. Mangok Mathiang (NZ) $185,700 FWD/CTR

9. Bul Kuol (CRN) $233,100 GRD/FWD

10. Sam Waardenburg (CRN) $256,400 FWD/CTR

11. Tai Webster (PER) 171,700 GRD

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