It’s still Cameron vs. Cameron at the box office, as Titanic stays atop Avatar: The Way of Water this weekend for the coveted status as third-highest grossing film in history. But the race is so close now, it could either films’ to win in the days ahead.
Official IMAX poster for “Avatar: The Way of Water”
Titanic grossed $22+ million over the three-day weekend, against Avatar: The Way of Water’s nearly $26 million weekend haul, so globally the Avatar sequel actually won the weekend but still hasn’t sprinted the final distance to win the race for the #3 spot on cinema’s all-time box office charts. James Cameron wins either way, in other words, so it’s just a question of the order in which he gets to brag at this point.
As of close of business Sunday, Titanic should have about $2.217 billion cumulative box office (including its first theatrical run, its 2012 re-release, and the current re-release) against The Way of Water’s $2.213 billion.
This is Super Bowl Sunday stateside, as you no doubt already know, so box office business was expected to plummet Sunday. That seems to be the case, as it’s a soft overall weekend for theaters. But as the numbers demonstrate, international markets still stepped up to keep things interesting and to ensure the race between James Cameron’s two epic blockbusters provides plenty of its own fun and scorekeeping.
Avatar 2 needs another $4 million to catch up. But that will be harder than it sounds, with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania arriving in a few days to take over premium screens worldwide and dominate the box office. Add to that Titanic’s chances to hold stronger in the next week or two than Avatar: The Way of Water, in relative dollar terms, and I still think Titanic will retain the #3 spot on all-time charts for now.
But it’s admitted much closer than I expected, with Titanic coming in lower than I thought it might and Avatar: The Way of Water dropping less than I expected overseas. It’s not much of a difference overall, but instead of Avatar 2 facing a roughly $10 million deficit at this point that I’d anticipated, it faces just under half of that.
So it’s not out of the cards for Cameron’s sci-fi blockbuster sequel to make a final sprint in the next few days and overtake Cameron’s romantic period drama. It all depends on whether positive word of mouth for the Titanic re-release is strong enough and sustained enough to help buoy the film’s international performance this week while Avatar: The Way of Water sees at least modest declines.
Some pundits expect Avatar: The Way of Water to claim the third spot on all-time global charts in the coming days or weeks, but I still feel Titanic has enough head of steam and only needs this week to hold onto its position on the box office charts, since the arrival of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will, I believe, affect Avatar 2’s box office more negatively than Titanic’s.
But as I’ve noted in previous articles, I am risking violating what should now — after Avatar: The Way of Water has so successfully demonstrated — be an undeniable rule of box office prognosticating: never doubt James Cameron, even when his opponent is also James Cameron. How perfect would it be, as evidence of the rule, for the two films to wind up tied for third place?
It’s important to always remember, though, that it’s inevitable Avatar: The Way of Water will eventually win the box office bronze medal, since it will get at least one re-release in the next couple of years and score enough additional ticket sales to top Titanic’s cume.
So even if this week sees Titanic hold on and retain its spot for now, it’s destined to be only a short-term victory, and The Way of Water will eventually secure the #3 spot, giving Cameron the numbers 1, 3, and 4 positions on the all-time box office charts, and when Avatar 3 arrives for Christmas in 2024, we’ll play this whole game again to see where in the top-4 that Cameron film winds up.
So yes, by spring of 2025 James Cameron will have the first, third, fourth, and fifth highest-grossing movies in global cinema history. That’s assuming Avengers: Endgame’s $2.799 billion cume is safe in the #2 spot, but we’ll find out in 2024…
I’ll keep updating you on Avatar: The Way of Water’s remarkable box office run and the re-release success of Titanic, and which of the films winds up winning the race for third place. I’ll also have news and updates for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s box office numbers and a full review of that film soon, so stay tuned, dear readers, and be sure to check back here soon!
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