It’s been a while, but my best bets column is back for the final stretch of regular season college hoops play.
There’s plenty of high level matchups on this Wednesday night slate, including TCU and Texas meeting again after Longhorns rallied at home to erase a double digit second half deficit and Auburn traveling to Alabama to hopefully calm the team’s bubble concerns.
It’s a loaded Wednesday card, here’s two of the plays I made, but there may be more closer to a tip. You can find those on my betstamp here.
College basketball betting record to date
College basketball best bets for Wednesday March 1
- Auburn +10 vs. Alabama
- TCU -3 vs. Texas
Auburn vs. Alabama prediction and pick
Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide | Odds by DraftKings
While it may seem like the sky is falling for Auburn, they should be able to keep this one within single digits. The two teams met on February 11th in a competitive, back-and-forth battle, which Alabama won by eight in a game they closed as one-and-a-half point favorites.
The Crimson Tide have won three of four since then and the Tigers have split their four contests, I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to Auburn’s blowout loss at Kentucky.
War Eagle still boasts a top 20 defense that is top five at defending both mid-range jumpers and three-point shots. The team’s rim defense isn’t so bad either, 34th in the country. However, Alabama shot a staggering 82% on two’s in that game. I don’t see that type of efficiency being replicated, even at home.
The Crimson Tide have the best defense in the SEC, and Auburn must get good production from KD Johnson and Wendell Green against Alabama’s deep drop defense, but I simply think that this spread is over inflated against the close from a game a few weeks ago.
Alabama hasn’t covered either of their past two games amidst the Brandon Miller situation, trailing into the second half of both contests. I think we see another close on on Wednesday.
PICK: Auburn +10
Texas vs. TCU prediction and pick
Texas Longhorns @ TCU Horned Frogs | Odds by DraftKings
TCU is very reliant on playing in transition, top 30 in the country in open court rate and top 80 in effective field goal percentage, but Texas is an elite transition defense, top 25 in the country in effective field goal percentage allowed.
However, I can’t overlook some of the road woes for the Longhorns. The team ranks 298th in the country in Haslametrics away rating, which means they see a glaring drop-off in production on the road this season. Further, the team is 3-6 against the spread (ATS) this season.
If Texas can’t win the battle of pace in this one, and this becomes a track meet, it may be in for trouble against the relentless Horned Frogs offensive rebounding game as Texas ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding rate since the start of February. Further, TCU is one of the most capable teams at getting to the free throw line, 83rd in the nation, while Texas is bottom 100 in free throw rate allowed this season.
This number has been on the move since opening at TCU -1.5. Yes, I was able to secure a better number overnight, and the number is now at the stop point for which I’d play it at -3, but this is setting up for a convincing home victory for the Horned Frogs.
PICK: TCU -3
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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