Adeline van Houtte, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s lead analyst on Russia, wrote for Politico: “There are multiple reasons to question the narrative that has arisen in the West in recent weeks.”
The first is the numbers, which don’t quite add up – if Russia’s show of force really was a prelude to an offensive, it would require far more troops and air defence.
Russia would also likely be more discreet, with this show of strength now so public it would be impossible to take Ukraine by surprise, as it did with Crimea.
In addition to this, the Ukrainian army is far stronger now than it was in 2014, and an invasion would be extremely costly for Russia, both economically and in manpower.
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